Skyscraper in Moscow

填补投资缺口

伯克利—美国和其他发达经济体私人投资疲软,2008年全球金融危机后的复苏的这一特征令人担忧,也令人困惑。事实上,据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据,2014年较危机前趋势,私人投资平均下降25%。

投资不足的深度和广度都很大,不但影响住宅投资,也影响设备和结构投资。商业投资显著低于2008年前的预期,去年美国商业投资因为石油价格暴跌所导致的能源部门投资骤降而再遭重创。

有趣的是,美国的投资短缺和资本回报率的强力反弹同时发生。从某种程度上讲,私人资本回报率目前比最近几十年中的任何时候都要高。但大量实证研究证实,在宏观层面,商业投资主要取决于预期未来需求和产出增长,而不是当前回报率或留存利润。据IMF,这一投资的“加速器”理论解释了2008年危机后发达经济体商业投资疲软的绝大部分。

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