jaishankar1_keithbinns_Getty images_map afghanistan

阿富汗的新章节

Mar 5, 2019 Dhruva Jaishankar

新德里——阿富汗近代的地缘政治历史可以被分为五个阶段。但现在它正处在又一次转型的风口浪尖，而新阶段的决定性特征尚有待观察。

在从1974~1979年的第一阶段，巴基斯坦开始为可以用于反对默罕默德·伊德里斯·达乌德政府的伊斯兰分子提供庇护和训练。而后，从1979~1989年，巴基斯坦、美国和沙特阿拉伯资助、训练并装备了与苏联军队作战的圣战游击队员。从1989~1996年，随着地区军阀夺取权力、逼近喀布尔并推翻莫罕默德·纳吉布拉总统，阿富汗进入到转型阶段。从1996~2001年，塔利班政府带来了一波肆无忌惮的野蛮期——除巴基斯坦、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国以外——阿富汗陷入到外交孤立阶段。

第五阶段始于2001年911袭击发生后。自那以后，美国一直与支持战争的东拼西凑的阿富汗政府纠葛不断，共同针对重新兴起的由巴基斯坦支持的塔利班。第六阶段凸显了两个问题：美国是否失去了阿富汗战争，如果是，原因何在？

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j. von Hettlingen Mar 10, 2019

Dhruva Jaishankar highlights Afghanistan’s history in five phases since the 1973 coup that ousted King Zahir Shaha. For the moment the country is at a point of transition. Entering the sixth phase, two questions emerge: “Did the US lose the war in Afghanistan and, if so, why?” The author says, “in assessing the future, it will be important to reflect upon the recent past, in order to break the cycle of unlearned lessons that have brought Afghanistan and its interlocutors to this point.”
Afghanistan has suffered from such chronic instability during its modern history that its economy and infrastructure are in ruins. More than a million people have died and millions fled the country. The 1979 Soviet invasion to prop up a communist regime led to an insurgency by US- and Pakistan-backed mujahideen. The 1989 withdrawal of Soviet troops and the fall of the regime triggered a devastating civil war.
The Taliban, who imposed strict Islamic rule, were ousted by the US in 2001, following the 9/11 attacks, with Nato-led troops maintaining security. The internationally-recognised government set up after the adoption of a new constitution in 2004 has struggled to extend its authority beyond the capital and to forge national unity. The formal end of combat mission in December 2014 was followed by an upsurge in Taliban attacks.
Since then the US has been fighting a war that it can not win, but can not afford to lose. Resenting the blood and treasure spent on the longest war in their history, Americans are war-weary. The US has failed to defeat the Taliban and Afghanistan could once again become “a haven for terrorists.” Trump has pushed for peace talks with the Taliban and a reduction of the US troops before the 2020 election, which he hopes to win again.
The author points out four reasons why in Afghanistan “things did not go according to plan for the US.” The political mistakes were “born largely of ignorance and hubris,” like imposing a “presidential-style government with inadequate checks and balances” on a multi-ethnic and tribal society. The 2003 Iraq war had sapped much strength and resources, while the Afghan security forces were neglected. Democratisation efforts were mostly “top-down” rather than bottom up etc.
The “military mistakes” were a result of misjudgement. While counter-insurgency approach worked in Iraq, it failed in Afghanistan. The US did not “co-opt key adversaries,” and it had not dealt decisively with Pakistan, that has backed and harboured the Taliban and other insurgent groups. It was an erroneous belief that “buying Pakistan’s tactical cooperation through threats, aid, or military support could prove sustainable.”
The author says “pressuring India to resolve the Jammu and Kashmir dispute” did not “allay Pakistani insecurities” and encourage Islamabad to help secure peace in Afghanistan. And Pakistan has little appetite “to clean up its act.” The gains the author mentions are in jeopardy. Kabul, the capital could once again fall into Taliban hands. This “semblance of a functioning state – including a national government and a military” – may be a “reality, however flawed,” but not for long.
Given Afghanistan’s geostrategic location, “it will remain of interest to Iran, Russia, China, Pakistan, and India. And as long as terrorist groups can train and operate internationally from Afghanistan and Pakistan, the US and Europe will also have a continued interest in the country’s future.”
What worries many Afghans is that after 17-years overshadowed by war and a heavy international presence they now face an uncertain future and the possibility of stark change. No one knows what form a new government may take or how much control the Taliban might have under any deal. The prospect of peace with the hardline Islamists brings a daunting mix of hope and fear. Afghans are powerless vis-à-vis the political development in their country.
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阿富汗的新章节

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