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与塔利班实现和平是否可能?

堪培拉——尽管美国和塔利班之间正在进行和平谈判,但阿富汗的血腥冲突继续给该国民众造成沉重的打击。伊斯兰国呼罗珊分支(IS-K)最近在喀布尔一次婚礼上制造的自杀式爆炸袭击造成超过60人死亡、近200人受伤,残酷地提醒人们阿富汗困难的安全局势。此次袭击还表明塔利班并非助推冲突的唯一武装反对派。因此,美国和塔利班达成和平协议不太可能带来任何喘息之机。

美国塔利班多哈谈判——阿富汗政府并未参与——大致与前两次和平进程相当:诞生1973年1月美国与北越和平协议的巴黎会谈;以及产生1988年日内瓦协议的谈判,当时的协议签署方是阿富汗和巴基斯坦政府与苏联,由美国充当担保人的角色。

上述两份协议旨在实现美国和苏联从无法打赢的战争中“体面地”撤军,方法是通过实现上述冲突的“越南化”和“阿富汗化”。这两份协议的目标均未能实现。

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