Pedro Molina

O Ano Iraniano de Obama

PRINCETON – Agora que inicia o seu segundo mandato presidencial, Barack Obama terá de dedicar grande parte da sua atenção a encontrar uma forma de organizar as finanças internas do país. Mas as questões de política externa são igualmente motivo de grande preocupação e, não obstante o conflito que está em curso na Síria e a possibilidade da guerra poder alastrar à região africana do Sahel, a perspectiva consensual em Washington é que 2013 será o "ano decisivo" relativamente ao Irão.

A primeira administração de Obama teve início com uma proposta de diálogo com a República Islâmica. No seu primeiro discurso inaugural, em 2009, Obama afirmou, numa frase que ficaria memorável: "estender-vos-emos a mão se estiverdes dispostos a abrir os vossos punhos cerrados." Repetiu o compromisso, embora de forma muito mais oblíqua, no seu segundo discurso inaugural: "daremos provas de coragem na resolução pacífica das nossas divergências com as outras nações - não porque somos ingénuos perante os perigos com que somos confrontados, mas porque o diálogo permite acabar de forma mais duradoura com a desconfiança e o medo ".

Como observou recentemente  o académico e activista americano, Hussein Ibish, Obama nomeou um gabinete com o objectivo de obter maior margem de manobra para negociar um acordo com o Irão. Em especial, o facto de nomear veteranos de guerra para os cargos de Secretário de Estado e de Secretário da Defesa conferir-lhe-á uma valiosa cobertura política interna para um acordo que exigirá inevitavelmente o levantamento das sanções ao Irão e o reconhecimento quase certo do seu direito de enriquecer urânio a um baixo nível de concentração. O governo do Irão deveria considerar este facto como um sinal de que não só os EUA estão a levar a sério o acordo, como também de que qualquer que seja a proposta dos EUA, será provavelmente o melhor acordo que poderão conseguir.

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