Pedro Molina

L’année iranienne d’Obama

PRINCETON – A l’heure où le président américain Barack Obama entame son second mandat, il devra consacrer une grande part de son temps à remettre en ordre les finances américaines. Mais les questions de politique étrangère occupent aussi une place très importante, et en dépit du conflit syrien et du risque d’une propagation de la guerre dans la région africaine du sahel, le consensus à Washington est que 2013 sera une « année décisive » concernant l’Iran.

Obama a débuté son premier mandat en proposant de réengager le dialogue avec la République Islamique ; on se souvient de sa déclaration à l’occasion de son premier discours inaugural en 2009 : « Notre main vous est tendue si vous êtes prêts à desserrer les poings. » Il a répété cet engagement, mais par circonvolutions, dans son second discours inaugural : « Nous aurons le courage de tenter de résoudre les différends qui nous opposent aux autres nations de manière pacifique – non parce que nous n’avons pas conscience des dangers qui nous menacent, mais parce que le dialogue est plus fort que la suspicion et la peur. »  

Comme l’a récemment souligné l’intellectuel et activiste Hussein Ibish, Obama s’est entouré d’un cabinet qui lui laissera un maximum de marge de négociation avec l’Iran. En particulier, la nomination de vétérans de guerre aux postes de secrétaire d’état et secrétaire à la défense lui assure un précieux soutien pour un accord qui impliquerait inévitablement de lever les sanctions contre l’Iran et presque certainement de reconnaître son droit à l’uranium enrichi à un faible degré de concentration. Cela devrait permettre de convaincre les dirigeants iraniens de la détermination américaine à parvenir à cet accord, mais aussi que quoique puisse proposer les Etats-Unis, ce sera probablement leur meilleure offre.

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