Paul Lachine

Die drei Defizite Amerikas

BERKELEY – Anfang dieses Jahres ist eine Reihe von Berichten mit verlockenden Anzeichen für eine stärker werdende Erholung US-Wirtschaft veröffentlicht worden. Die Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen hat sich beschleunigt, die Indikatoren für das produzierende Gewerbe und Dienstleistungen haben sich verbessert und die Konsumausgaben waren höher als erwartet. Zum Feiern ist es allerdings noch zu früh.

Das Produktionswachstum in den USA bleibt anämisch und die Wirtschaft ist weiterhin mit drei erheblichen Defiziten konfrontiert: Einem Arbeitsplatzdefizit, einem Investitionsdefizit und einem langfristiges Haushaltsdefizit, von denen vermutlich keines in einem Wahljahr in Angriff genommen wird.

Obwohl die Produktionsleistung inzwischen höher ist als im vierten Quartal 2007, bleibt sie doch weit unter dem, was produziert werden könnte, wenn Arbeitskräfte und Kapazität voll ausgeschöpft würden. Die Lücke – zwischen der tatsächlichen und der potenziellen Produktionsleistung – wird auf über 7% des BIP geschätzt (mehr als eine Billion US-Dollar).

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