La hegemonía de la propia derrota de Estados Unidos

Cuando escribí acerca del “fin de la historia” hace casi veinte años, algo que no anticipé fue el grado en que la conducta y los errores de apreciación de Estados Unidos harían que el sentimiento antiestadounidense fuera una de las principales líneas divisorias de la política global. Y sin embargo, sobre todo a partir de los ataques terroristas del 11 de septiembre de 2001, eso es exactamente lo que ha ocurrido, debido a cuatro errores clave de la administración Bush.

En primer lugar, la doctrina de la “prevención”, que se diseñó en respuesta a los ataques de 2001, se amplió inadecuadamente para incluir a Iraq y otros de los llamados “Estados delincuentes” que amenazaban con desarrollar armas de destrucción masiva. Es cierto que la prevención se justifica plenamente ante terroristas sin Estado que tienen ese tipo de armas. Pero no puede ser el núcleo de una política general de no proliferación, mediante la cual Estados Unidos intervenga en todas partes para impedir el desarrollo de armas nucleares.

El costo de ejecutar una política como esa sería sencillamente demasiado alto (varios cientos de miles de millones de dólares y decenas de miles de bajas en Iraq que se siguen acumulando). A esto se debe que la administración Bush haya eludido las confrontaciones militares con Corea del Norte e Irán, a pesar de su admiración por el ataque aéreo de Israel sobre el reactor Osirak de Iraq en 1981, que retrasó en varios años el programa nuclear de Saddam Hussein. Después de todo, el éxito mismo de ese ataque significó que nunca se podría repetir una intervención limitada de ese tipo, porque quienes buscaban esas armas aprendieron a enterrar, esconder o duplicar sus programas nucleares nacientes.

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