把美国自己击败的霸权

20年前撰写“历史的终结”一文时,我没有料到美国的行为和错误判断竟会使反美主义成为全球政治的重要标志线。但特别是在2001年9月11日的恐怖袭击后,这一事实已经摆在面前,究其原因与布什政府所犯的四大错误有关。

首先,为回应2001年袭击制定的“先发制人”的总体策略被不恰当地扩大到涵盖伊拉克和其它威胁要发展大规模杀伤性武器的其它所谓“流氓”国家。可以肯定的是,用先发制人的策略对待挥舞大规模杀伤性武器的无国家恐怖分子是合理的。但这样的策略却不能成为所有不扩散政策的核心,在这种政策的指导下,美国四处进行军事干预,目的是防止核武器的发展。

执行上述政策的成本太过昂贵(在伊拉克造成了数千亿美元的损失和数万平民的伤亡,这个数字还在不断扩大)。布什政府也因此躲避与北朝鲜和伊朗的军事对峙,尽管美国对以色列1981年空袭伊拉克的奥西拉克反应堆表示赞赏,因为那次行动使萨达姆的核计划延迟了几年之久。但归根结底,那次袭击的成功本身意味着这样有限度的干涉不可能复制,因为可能的扩散者都学会了埋藏、隐蔽或复制它们新生的武器计划。

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