Шизофрения экономики США

Новости об экономике США, просачивавшиеся по капле всю первую половину марта, создали картину, нарисовать которую мог лишь шизофреник. Реальные инвестиции (с учётом снижения цен на высокотехнологичные и информационные товары) продолжали расти. Уровни производства и продаж были стабильны и соответствовали прогнозу роста ВВП на 4% годовых и выше. Но, несмотря на всё это, занятость не растёт: чистый прирост созданных рабочих мест в США сохраняется близким к нулю.

Это не означает , что занятость в США не может расти. Почти на 300 000 американцев больше чем год назад работает в образовании и здравоохранении что дает прирост занятости на 1,7%. За год на четверть миллиона американцев больше стало работать в сфере деловых и профессиональных услуг - рост занятости 1,6% за год. Логика проблемы занятости не в том, что дополнительные рабочие места в американской экономике создать невозможно, а в том, что потеря рабочих мест опережает их создание.

Это легко доказать. Общие номинальные расходы США растут на 5,5% в год. Инфляция - 1,5% в год. Общий рост производительности - 3,5% за год. Уравнение просто: 5,5%-1,5%-3,5%=0,5%. Эти 0,5% - всё, что остаётся росту занятости, потому что именно столько требуется прироста рабочих мест для удовлетворения спроса, что обусловлено исключительно высоким приростом производительности труда.

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