Americké schizofrenní hospodářství

Zprávy o americkém hospodářství, jež po kapkách přinesla první půle března, opět vykreslily obrázek, jaký by mohl vytvořit jen schizofrenik. Reálné investice (investice upravené o klesající ceny kapitálových statků v oblasti špičkových technologií a informatiky) nepolevily ve svém trysku. Produkce i tržby byly v souladu s konsenzuální předpovědí růstu reálného HDP, odhadující jeho roční tempo na 4% či výše. Přesto navzdory všem těmto faktům zaměstnanost setrvale stagnuje: čistá tvorba pracovních příležitostí ve Spojených státech ustrnula.

To neznamená, že by zaměstnanost v Americe růst nemohla. Ve školství a ve zdravotnictví je zaměstnáno o zhruba 300 tisíc Američanů víc než před rokem - tempo růstu zaměstnanosti 1,7%. V obchodních a odborných službách našlo zaměstnání o čtvrt milionu Američanů víc než před rokem - tempo růstu zaměstnanosti 1,6%. Logika stagnující zaměstnanosti nespočívá v tom, že by nebylo možné nová pracovní místa v americkém hospodářství vytvářet, nýbrž v tom, že růst poptávky není dostatečný na to, aby vytvářel víc míst, než kolik ubude.

To lze snadno prokázat. Celkové nominální výdaje v Americe rostou o 5,5% ročně. Inflace je 1,5% za rok. Celkový růst produktivity dosahuje 3,5% za rok. Rovnice je tedy prostá: 5,5%-1,5%-3,5% = 0,5%. Těchto 0,5% je vše, co na tvorbu pracovních příležitostí zbývá, neboť víc nových pracovníků není s ohledem na pozoruhodně rychlé tempo růstu produktivity k uspokojení poptávky zapotřebí.

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