矛盾式发展的美国经济

美国经济在三月上旬渐行渐弱的消息又一次为我们描绘了一幅只有精神分裂症患者才能画出的情景。实际投资(由于高科技和与信息有关的资本货物价格下跌而调整后的投资)继续大幅增长。生产和销售与公认的4%或以上的实际GDP年增长率预测保持一致。可尽管如此,就业情况仍不景气:美国的净工作创造量仍然停滞不前。

这并不意味着美国的就业率不能增长了。于去年相比,美国的教育和医疗行业多雇佣了约30万人-就业年增长率达1.7%。商业和专业服务行业多雇佣了25万人-就业年增长率为1.6%。就业状况不景气的逻辑并不是美国经济不可能创造新的工作,而是需求的增长不足以创造足够的工作机会以吸纳失业者。

这点很容易说明。美国的总名目支出年增长5.5%,年通货膨胀率为1.5%。全员劳动生产率的年增长率为3.5%。所以用一个简单的等式表示:5.5%-1.5%-3.5%=0.5%。而就业率的增长就只能达到0.5%,因为尽管劳动生产率增长强劲,要满足需求却只需要这样就业率增长。

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