Paul Lachine

美国的战略真空

纽黑文——显然,美联储决策者对开放式量化宽松政策(QE)明智与否开始有些犹豫。这种犹豫合情合理。这项效果不明的政策试验不仅未能实现合格的经济复苏,甚至可能引发另外一场危机。

不满情绪在1月29-30日举行的美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上暗潮汹涌:“众多与会者…表达了对进一步采购资产所引发的潜在成本和风险的忧虑情绪。”与会者既忧心量化宽松退出策略可能带来动荡,也担心美联储证券组合迅速膨胀引发资本损失(目前美联储证券组合价值3万亿,并将在年底达到4万亿的规模)。

无论担忧情绪多么严重,它们都忽略了美联储这项史无前例策略中最大的弱点:那就是强调短期战术甚于长期战略。在2007-2008年危机面前目瞪口呆的美联储一而再、再而三地压注于战略对策,先是推出两轮量化宽松又继之以目前开放式的重复操作,并因此不断加深对问题的误判。联邦公开市场委员会从第一轮量化宽松(在危机恐怖情绪达到顶峰时大规模注入流动性)的成功中感受到虚假的安全感,从而错误地相信已经找到了后续政策行动的正确模式。

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