Auf Wiedersehen Naher Osten?

PARIS – Seit geraumer Zeit macht sich nun eine bestimmte strategische Vision breit: die Vereinigten Staaten werden energieunabhängig, womit sie den Weg für ihren politischen Rückzug aus dem Nahen Osten ebnen und ihre strategische Hinwendung nach Asien rechtfertigen. Intuitiv scheint diese Ansicht richtig, aber hält sie auch einer Überprüfung der Realität stand?

Das energiehungrige Amerika war zur Befriedigung seiner Inlandsnachfrage lange Zeit von den globalen Märkten abhängig. Im Jahr 2005 importierten die USA 60 Prozent der Energie, die  sie verbrauchten. Seit damals allerdings ist der Anteil der Importe gesunken und diese Entwicklung wird wohl weiter anhalten. Man rechnet damit, dass die USA im Jahr 2020 in der Lage sein werden, ihren Energiebedarf selbst zu decken und 2030 Öl zu exportieren.

Aus diesem Szenario würden die USA drei immense Vorteile ziehen. Angesichts der niedrigeren Kosten der Gewinnung von Schiefergas würde sich die amerikanische Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, vor allem gegenüber Europa, verbessern. Außerdem hätte man weniger mit den zunehmenden Unruhen in der arabischen Welt zu tun. Und schließlich würde die relative Verwundbarkeit des amerikanischen Hauptrivalen China steigen, das zunehmend von der Energieversorgung aus dem Nahen Osten abhängig ist. 

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