Sbohem, Blízký východe?

PAŘÍŽ – Už nějakou dobu získává na významu jistá strategická vize: Spojené státy se stávají energeticky nezávislou zemí, což připravuje půdu pro jejich politický ústup z Blízkého východu a ospravedlňuje jejich strategický příklon k Asii. Intuitivně se tento pohled jeví jako správný, ale je tomu skutečně tak?

Energeticky hladová Amerika byla dlouho odkázaná na globální trh, aby uspokojila svou domácí poptávku. V roce 2005 USA dovážely 60% energie, kterou doma spotřebovaly. Od té doby se však podíl dovozu snižuje a tento trend by měl pokračovat. Očekává se, že v roce 2020 se USA stanou energeticky soběstačnou zemí a do roku 2030 začnou vyvážet ropu.

Takový scénář by USA poskytl tři obrovské výhody. Vzhledem k nižším nákladům spojeným s těžbou břidlicového plynu by zvýšil americkou hospodářskou konkurenceschopnost, zejména ve vztahu k Evropě. Dále by snížil zranitelnost Ameriky vůči rostoucímu neklidu v arabském světě. A konečně by zvýšil relativní zranitelnost hlavního amerického strategického rivala Číny, která je na dodávkách energie z Blízkého východu naopak stále závislejší.

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