美国消费者有恙

纽黑文—诡辩老手努力地为美国欠佳的经济复苏开脱。所有目光都集中在家庭身上。由于失业率的下降、家庭价值的增加和创新高的股市,预测家、市场参与者和决策者目前形成了新的共识,美国消费者终于回来了。

别信他们。首先来看事实:自2008年初以来的21个季度中,真实(经通胀调整的)个人消费平均增长年率只有0.9%。这是美国真实消费需求自二战结束以来最长的疲软期,大大低于1996—2007年危机前真实消费增长年率3.6%

家庭消费占美国经济的约70%,因此危机前后趋势之间2.7个百分点的差距足以让危机后真实GDP增长率趋势下降1.9个百分点。无怪乎美国失业率会高到不可忍受的程度了。

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