Skip to main content

美国消费者有恙

纽黑文—诡辩老手努力地为美国欠佳的经济复苏开脱。所有目光都集中在家庭身上。由于失业率的下降、家庭价值的增加和创新高的股市,预测家、市场参与者和决策者目前形成了新的共识,美国消费者终于回来了。

别信他们。首先来看事实:自2008年初以来的21个季度中,真实(经通胀调整的)个人消费平均增长年率只有0.9%。这是美国真实消费需求自二战结束以来最长的疲软期,大大低于1996—2007年危机前真实消费增长年率3.6%

家庭消费占美国经济的约70%,因此危机前后趋势之间2.7个百分点的差距足以让危机后真实GDP增长率趋势下降1.9个百分点。无怪乎美国失业率会高到不可忍受的程度了。

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Subscribe

Get unlimited access to PS premium content, including in-depth commentaries, book reviews, exclusive interviews, On Point, the Big Picture, the PS Archive, and our annual year-ahead magazine.

https://prosyn.org/E3G7bBw/zh;
  1. bildt69_DELIL SOULEIMANAFP via Getty Images_syriansoldiermissilegun Delil Souleiman/AFP/Getty Images

    Time to Bite the Bullet in Syria

    Carl Bildt

    US President Donald Trump's impulsive decision to pull American troops out of northern Syria and allow Turkey to launch a military campaign against the Kurds there has proved utterly disastrous. But a crisis was already inevitable, given the realities on the ground and the absence of a coherent US or Western policy in Syria.

    2

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated Cookie policy, Privacy policy and Terms & Conditions