增长的局面改变因素

伯克利—最近在圣彼得堡举行的G20财政会议确认了增长和紧缩之争已经结束——至少在当下是如此。随着欧洲的长期衰退和新兴市场的减速,对预算赤字的担忧已经让位给对增长的担忧。7月,IMF今年第二次下调全球增长预测。

日本和美国成为暗淡全球前景的亮点,但各有各的原因。在日本,首相安倍晋三同时抛出了激进的货币和财政扩张,并承诺改革劳动力市场、公司治理、监管和贸易。

在快速而大胆的刺激措施作用下,日本经济预计今年增长率为3%左右——为发达经济体中最高值之一——而日经指数在截至今年5月的半年中上涨了80%。如今,安倍放出信号将跟进一步采取严厉的结构性改革。若得偿所愿,那么他的政策将让日本焕然一新。

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