Почему Иран не хочет передумать

ТЕЛЬ-АВИВ – Никто не верил, что последний раунд международных переговоров с Ираном по его ядерной программе станет прорывом. Так что неудивительно, что этого не произошло, даже несмотря на уступки, сделанные на встрече Р5+1 в Казахстане (Китай, Франция, Россия, Великобритания и США, а также Германия). Вера Америки в то, что только режим жестких санкций может вынудить Иран пойти на сделку, оказалась, по крайней мере на данный момент, неоправданной.

Несмотря на изоляцию и остракизм, Иран сумел выгадать некоторую стратегическую передышку благодаря таким странам, как Китай, Россия, Индия, Сирия и Венесуэла, поскольку они позволяют ему противостоять давлению Запада. Что еще более важно, даже несмотря на то что режим жестких санкций, возглавляемый США, неизбежно будет иметь бреши, он только еще больше ожесточает будущее сопротивление Ирана «планам Америки».

Стоит уточнить, что союзники Ирана подвержены эрозии, и в случае падения его двух верных союзников, Сирии и Венесуэлы, этот союз обречен на полный крах. Конец Чавизма будет угрожать обширным интересам Ирана в Венесуэле и его значительному присутствию в Андах, а падение династии Асада стало бы сокрушительным ударом по региональной стратегии Ирана.

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