Iran : une politique à revoir

TEL AVIV – Personne n'a cru que les dernières négociations avec l'Iran sur son programme nucléaire conduiraient à une véritable avancée. Leur échec n'a donc pas été une surprise, malgré les concessions faites lors de la rencontre récente au Kazakhstan entre l'Iran et le groupe 5 +1 (la Chine, la France, la Russie, le Royaume-Uni et les USA plus l'Allemagne). L'idée américaine selon laquelle des sanctions sévères amèneraient l'Iran à accepter un accord s'est révélée - au moins jusqu'à présent - totalement irréaliste.

Bien qu'isolé et considéré comme étant un Etat renégat, à l'aide de pays comme la Chine, la Russie, l'Inde, la Syrie et le Vénézuéla, l'Iran est parvenu à une petite avancée stratégique dans sa résistance à la pression occidentale. Même les sanctions sévères sous l'égide des USA ne font que renforcer la résistance de l'Iran au "dessein de l'Amérique".

Les alliances de l'Iran sont cependant fragiles, et dans le cas de deux de ses alliés dévoués (la Syrie et le Vénézuéla), on ne peut exclure une rupture brutale. La fin du Chavismo menacerait les nombreux intérêts iraniens au Vénézuéla, ainsi que toute sa présence dans les Andes, tandis que la chute de la dynastie Assad porterait un coup terrible à sa stratégie régionale.

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