伊朗为什么不会让步

Mar 1, 2013 Shlomo Ben-Ami

特拉维夫——没有人真的相信与伊朗的新一轮核计划国际谈判能够取得突破。因此尽管P5+1集团（中国、法国、俄罗斯、英国、美国，再加上德国）在哈萨克斯坦会议上已做出让步，谈判没有进展也并不出人意料。美国认为严厉的制裁制度可以劝诱伊朗达成协议的想法至少目前看来是不切实际的。

尽管遭到孤立和排斥，伊朗在中国、俄罗斯、印度、叙利亚和委内瑞拉等国的帮助下得到了对抗西方压力的战略喘息空间。更重要的是，即使美国领导的严厉制裁制度注定并不完美——它只能进一步增强伊朗对“美国阴谋”的抵触情绪。

可以肯定伊朗的战略联盟并不稳固，叙利亚和委内瑞拉这两大坚定盟友甚至有可能彻底崩溃。查韦斯政权终结有可能威胁伊朗在委内瑞拉的庞大利益，同时伊朗在安第斯山脉的势力也有可能遭到破坏。阿萨德王朝的垮台将对伊朗地区战略构成毁灭性的打击。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 8 Comments on this article

Michelle Williams Jul 1, 2013

true because sanctions cause trade diversion -- here is some evidence
http://www.voxeu.org/article/iran-sanctions-and-diverted-trade-exporter-level-evidence
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Charles Holley Apr 2, 2013

Iran may not be as isolated and ostracized as the United States of Israel pretends. Iran has a lot more friends than the media portrays, as opposed to 'allies' which other countries buy.
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Dan Adams Mar 18, 2013

The answer called for is not really a more passive policy. Israel doesn't believe in that for obvious reasons.
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Paul A. Myers Mar 2, 2013

I don't want to rain on the Foreign Policy Establishment's wisdom, but the way forward with Iran is going to be containment. It works. It will work with Iran, possibly better than with Pakistan. Sensible people should have long ago moved beyond the neocon "bomb Iran" thinking to something more adult-like.

As I write, the US is sequestering defense funds. I believe that about two-thirds of the American public will be happy to shrink the defense budget and bring American troops home and downsize the overall military presence of "force projection" around the world.

Money talks. And the US is out of it. John Kerry is lucky the Turkish prime minister didn't throw him out of his office for his impertinence.
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Frank O'Callaghan Mar 1, 2013

The acceptance of the rationality and necessity of WMD programs driven by fear of the kind of event that removed Libyan and Iraqi regimes is honest.
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MK Anon Mar 1, 2013

the picture is as balanced as the text..

By the way, can't we think of another state with nuclear power that is really not accommodating to its neighboors? And one that does illegal occupation of a foreign territory and that denies the right to a state to millions of people ?
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Dan Adams Mar 1, 2013

Yawn. The usual call to arms from Israel. After 4 Western coups in the last century, Iranians are predictably wary of Western advice.

Further, Saudi Arabia has its own religious/political reasons for being so anti-Iran. The battle for Iraq is part of that. Its ironic Israel and Saudi stand side by side on this.

I dont want to see a nuclear Iran but the need for national defence and China's economic needs and Russia's strategic and intelligence needs mean its going to happen especially if countries/commentators continue to advocate military action.
- Dov Fowler Mar 2, 2013
  
  @Dan Adams
  You are saying nonsense. The article makes the case for even more dovish American policy: "The diplomacy of sanctions, ostracism, and brinkmanship has failed resoundingly." This is not surprising, given that Mr. Ben-Ami is known for his rather left views.
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