Comments 7

伊朗为什么不会让步

Mar 1, 2013 Shlomo Ben-Ami

特拉维夫——没有人真的相信与伊朗的新一轮核计划国际谈判能够取得突破。因此尽管P5+1集团（中国、法国、俄罗斯、英国、美国，再加上德国）在哈萨克斯坦会议上已做出让步，谈判没有进展也并不出人意料。美国认为严厉的制裁制度可以劝诱伊朗达成协议的想法至少目前看来是不切实际的。

尽管遭到孤立和排斥，伊朗在中国、俄罗斯、印度、叙利亚和委内瑞拉等国的帮助下得到了对抗西方压力的战略喘息空间。更重要的是，即使美国领导的严厉制裁制度注定并不完美——它只能进一步增强伊朗对“美国阴谋”的抵触情绪。

可以肯定伊朗的战略联盟并不稳固，叙利亚和委内瑞拉这两大坚定盟友甚至有可能彻底崩溃。查韦斯政权终结有可能威胁伊朗在委内瑞拉的庞大利益，同时伊朗在安第斯山脉的势力也有可能遭到破坏。阿萨德王朝的垮台将对伊朗地区战略构成毁灭性的打击。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To continue reading, please log in or register now. After entering your email, you'll have access to two free articles every month. For unlimited access to Project Syndicate, subscribe now.

Featured

A Concert of Indo-Pacific Democracies

Nov 12, 2018 Brahma Chellaney
Who Should Control India’s Central Bank?

Nov 12, 2018 Jayati Ghosh
Populism's Common Denominator

Nov 9, 2018 Barry Eichengreen
Reclaiming Community

Nov 9, 2018 Dani Rodrik
The Global Impact of a Chinese Recession

Nov 7, 2018 Kenneth Rogoff

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 8 in all 8 Comments on this article

Michelle Williams Jul 1, 2013

true because sanctions cause trade diversion -- here is some evidence
http://www.voxeu.org/article/iran-sanctions-and-diverted-trade-exporter-level-evidence
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Charles Holley Apr 2, 2013

Iran may not be as isolated and ostracized as the United States of Israel pretends. Iran has a lot more friends than the media portrays, as opposed to 'allies' which other countries buy.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Dan Adams Mar 18, 2013

The answer called for is not really a more passive policy. Israel doesn't believe in that for obvious reasons.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Paul A. Myers Mar 2, 2013

I don't want to rain on the Foreign Policy Establishment's wisdom, but the way forward with Iran is going to be containment. It works. It will work with Iran, possibly better than with Pakistan. Sensible people should have long ago moved beyond the neocon "bomb Iran" thinking to something more adult-like.

As I write, the US is sequestering defense funds. I believe that about two-thirds of the American public will be happy to shrink the defense budget and bring American troops home and downsize the overall military presence of "force projection" around the world.

Money talks. And the US is out of it. John Kerry is lucky the Turkish prime minister didn't throw him out of his office for his impertinence.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Frank O'Callaghan Mar 1, 2013

The acceptance of the rationality and necessity of WMD programs driven by fear of the kind of event that removed Libyan and Iraqi regimes is honest.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
MK Anon Mar 1, 2013

the picture is as balanced as the text..

By the way, can't we think of another state with nuclear power that is really not accommodating to its neighboors? And one that does illegal occupation of a foreign territory and that denies the right to a state to millions of people ?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Dan Adams Mar 1, 2013

Yawn. The usual call to arms from Israel. After 4 Western coups in the last century, Iranians are predictably wary of Western advice.

Further, Saudi Arabia has its own religious/political reasons for being so anti-Iran. The battle for Iraq is part of that. Its ironic Israel and Saudi stand side by side on this.

I dont want to see a nuclear Iran but the need for national defence and China's economic needs and Russia's strategic and intelligence needs mean its going to happen especially if countries/commentators continue to advocate military action.
- Dov Fowler Mar 2, 2013
  
  @Dan Adams
  You are saying nonsense. The article makes the case for even more dovish American policy: "The diplomacy of sanctions, ostracism, and brinkmanship has failed resoundingly." This is not surprising, given that Mr. Ben-Ami is known for his rather left views.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

http://prosyn.org/jwUlG9s/zh;

伊朗为什么不会让步

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Featured

A Concert of Indo-Pacific Democracies

Who Should Control India’s Central Bank?

Populism's Common Denominator

Reclaiming Community

The Global Impact of a Chinese Recession

New Comment

Email this piece to a friend

Contact us

Are You Buying Oil from Saudi Arabia?

Gender and the Arab City

A Concert of Indo-Pacific Democracies

Trump’s Diminishing Power and Rising Rage

Who Should Control India’s Central Bank?

Reclaiming Community

Populism's Common Denominator

Forecasting Is Fallible, Yet Necessary

Cookies and Privacy

Log in/Register