Los años de la plaga de langostas en Estados Unidos

BERKELEY – En este momento es difícil escribir sobre economía política estadounidense. Nadie sabe si se podrá evadir el límite del techo de la deuda, cómo se hará o qué va a pasar si no ocurre.

Si no se alcanza un acuerdo para elevar el techo de la deuda antes del 3 de agosto, las tasas de interés sobre los bonos del Tesoro podrían aumentar drásticamente, o podrían mantenerse estables si es que los inversionistas deciden que tienen otros problemas de qué preocuparse. O la Reserva Federal de EE.UU., el Banco Popular de China (BPC), o ambos -o incluso algún otro organismo- podrían apuntalar el mercado. O las tasas de interés podrían elevarse si la gente espera una economía mundial mucho más débil... y, en una economía global más débil y sin inflación, los inversionistas deberían buscar poseer más bonos del Tesoro de EE.UU. y no menos.

Francamente, nadie sabe qué acuerdo legislativo se alcanzará para elevar el techo de la deuda. Todo lo que sabemos al momento de escribir esta columna es que probablemente el acuerdo implique recortes en el gasto a corto plazo, lo que significa un menor crecimiento y mayor desempleo en los próximos 18 meses. Y podemos suponer que sería derogado y sustituido por otra cosa cuando llegue enero de 2013, ya sea por un reelecto presidente Barack Obama, o por un nuevo presidente republicano.

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