Gli anni della locusta in America

BERKELEY – È davvero difficile ora parlare dell’economia politica americana. Nessuno sa se si dipanerà il nodo legato al tetto del debito; in caso positivo non è facile capire il modus operandi, in caso negativo non si conoscono le possibili conseguenze.

Se entro il 3 agosto non si raggiungerà ad un accordo sull’innalzamento del tetto di indebitamento governativo, i tassi di interesse sui buoni del Tesoro americano potrebbero schizzare alle stelle, o potrebbero rimanere invariati, solo nel caso in cui gli investitori preferiranno occuparsi di altri problemi. Altrimenti, la Federal Reserve americana oppure la People’s Bank of China (Pbc), oppure entrambi – o qualche altro organismo – potrebbero sostenere il mercato. Si potrebbe verificare anche un aumento dei tassi di interesse legato alle attese per un’economia globale nettamente più debole – e in un’economia globale più debole e senza inflazione, gli investitori dovrebbero detenere più titoli di stato americani, e non il contrario.

Francamente, nessuno sa quale accordo legislativo sarà raggiunto per innalzare il tetto del debito. Sappiamo solo che si tratta di un accordo che potrebbe implicare tagli sulla spesa nell’immediato futuro, e ciò si tradurrebbe in un indebolimento della crescita e in un aumento della disoccupazione nei prossimi 18 mesi. E possiamo dare quasi per certo che verrà annullato e sostituito da un altro accordo entro gennaio 2013, da un rieletto Presidente Barack Obama o da un nuovo presidente repubblicano.

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