美国的灾年

伯克利——现在写点关于美国政治经济学的文章可不容易。没人不知道债务上限这根紧绷的弦会不会松下来;如何松下来;如果不松下来又会发生什么。

如果到8月3日还不能就债务上限问题达成一致,那么美国国债利率可能会飙升,但也可能维持稳定(因为投资者会认为还有其他更加值得担忧的东西)。美联储和中国人民银行(以及其他机构)也可能会出手支撑市场。如果人们预期全球经济会进一步疲软,那么利率也可能会上升,而如果此时没有通胀之忧,那么投资者会更多(而不是更少)地持有美国国债。

坦白讲,没人知道到底会达成什么样的方案来提高债务上限。我们所能知道的是,该方案可能会包括削减近期支出的措施,这意味着在未来18个月里,增长会进一步放慢,失业率会进一步增加。我们还可以认为这些措施会在2013年1月结束,届时将会有新动作,抛出新措施的既可能是连任的奥巴马,也可能是新的共和党总统。

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