Hádanka amerických úrokových sazeb

Velkou hádankou dnešního světového hospodářství je vytrvale nízká hladina dlouhodobých reálných úrokových sazeb ve Spojených státech. Konvenční makroekonomové jako já sledují americký schodek obchodní bilance, který je v současnosti na úrovni 7% HDP, a vědí, že po takto ohromných deficitech nevyhnutelně přichází rozsáhlé znehodnocování měny. Očekáváme tedy značnou devalvační přirážku k úrokovým sazbám USA.

Jestliže dolar někdy v příštích deseti letech klesne oproti euru o 20%, dlouhodobé úrokové sazby USA by měly být o dva procentní body vyšší než sazby platné pro euro. Jestliže dolar v příštích deseti letech klesne oproti jenu o 40%, dlouhodobé úrokové sazby USA by měly být o čtyři procentní body vyšší než sazby japonské. Jestliže v příští dekádě klesne oproti čínskému jüanu o 60%, dlouhodobé úrokové sazby USA by měly být o šest procentních bodů vyšší než sazby čínské. Nic však nenaznačuje, že by něčemu takovému docházelo.

Hádankou není jen to, že dlouhodobé sazby jsou příliš nízké, díváme-li se na ně v mezinárodním kontextu, ale také to, že příliš nízké jsou i tehdy, uvážíme-li je v americkém domácím kontextu. Bushova administrativa stále nemá v úmyslu zašít ránu, již otevřela svou středověkou hospodářskou politikou, založenou na víře, že pustíme-li vládě státní důchod žilou, vyléčíme tak všechny ekonomické obtíže.

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