美国利率之谜

美国的长期实际利率一直维持着较低水平,这可以算是当今世界经济的一大难解之谜。现在,美国的经常项目赤字已达到国内生产总值的7%。看到这种情况,像我这样的传统宏观经济学家都清楚,在巨额赤字后,会不可避免地出现大幅度货币贬值。所以,我们预测美国利率溢价会出现大幅度的下降。

如果在未来十年的某一天,美元与欧元的汇率再下跌20%,美国的长期利率就会比欧元高出2个百分点。如果在未来十年的某一天,美元与日元之比下跌40%,美国的长期利率就会比日本高出4个百分点。如果在未来十年的某一天,美元与人民币之比下跌60%,美国的长期利率就会比中国高出6个百分点。但是,现在我们却看不到一点这样的迹象。

让人不解的是,不仅从国际上看长期利率太低,而且就是从美国国内来看,这一利率也非常低。布什政府还是拿不出任何计划来缝合自己用所奉行的中世纪经济政策割开的血管,上述政策认为,只要政府出血,让出部分税收,就可以解决一切经济问题。

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