La croissance américaine pour la prochaine décennie

CAMBRIDGE – La vigueur de l’économie américaine reste incertaine pour 2010. Il convient néanmoins de s’intéresser à son éventuelle performance dans les dix ans à venir. La hausse du PIB au cours de la prochaine décennie reflètera les effets très positifs de l’ultime reprise sur le fort ralentissement actuel, associés à une augmentation inférieure à la tendance de l'éventuelle production économique par plein emploi. Quand je combine tous les facteurs importants, j’en viens à la conclusion que le taux de croissance annuel de la prochaine décennie sera d’environ 1,9 %, à peu de choses près le taux moyen des dix dernières années.

Pour comprendre, commençons par la reprise cyclique. Je pars de l’hypothèse, optimiste mais plausible, que l’économie se redressera totalement lors de la future décennie, abaissant ainsi le taux de chômage actuel de 10 % à environ 5 %. Ce retour au plein emploi aura aussi pour effet de réduire le nombre de personnes en recherche d’emploi. Découragées par le fait qu’aucun emploi adapté à leurs qualifications existe, elles arrêteront de chercher et ne seront plus comptabilisées.

La reprise cyclique de l’emploi conduira le PIB à augmenter d’environ 13 % durant les dix prochaines années, soit une moyenne de 1,2 % par an. Ceci représente un renversement substantiel par rapport aux dix années précédentes, lorsque le taux de chômage passa de 4 % à 10 % et que le taux de main d’œuvre régressa de 67 % à 65 %, abaissant ainsi le PIB à environ 1,6 % par an.

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