Американские проблемы с занятостью и ростом

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. Для многих, если не большинства американцев, кризис, который обрушился на них в 2008 году – приводя к медленному экономическому росту, росту безработицы и высокой обеспокоенности среди избирателей ‑ казалось, пришел из ниоткуда. Конечно, подавляющее большинство экономистов, инвестиционных аналитиков, финансовых фирм и регуляторов не смогли распознать растущий риск. Но на самом деле у него были глубокие корни.

Хотя невозможно определить точное время какого-либо кризиса, все, кто нашел время, чтобы интерполировать растущий долг размером в десятилетие, низкий уровень сбережений, растущие цены на активы и избыточное потребление, могли увидеть достаточное количество признаков роста риска, перекосов, структурных проблем и дисбаланса. До кризиса Соединенные Штаты шли по пути неустойчивого роста, по крайней мере, десятилетие, а возможно, даже больше.

Восстановление баланса и устранение перекосов потребует времени, инвестиций и структурных изменений, и это должно стать центром внимания экономической политики Америки. Сектор домашних хозяйств является особенно важным. Если бы главная проблема сводилась к избыточному использованию кредитных средств для совершения финансовых сделок и рискам в финансовом секторе, экономический шок был бы бòльшим, но и восстановление было бы более быстрым. Именно огромная потеря чистого капитала домохозяйств привела к падению реального сектора экономики (при содействии ограничения кредитования для малого бизнеса).

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