Die amerikanischen Wahlen und die Weltwirtschaft

STANFORD – Der Termin der amerikanischen Wahlen rückt näher und obwohl Präsident Barack Obama leicht vor seinem republikanischem Herausforderer, dem ehemaligen Gouverneur von Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, liegt, bewerten Meinungsforscher das Rennen um die Präsidentschaft und den Senat der Vereinigten Staaten noch immer als zu knapp, um eine seriöse Prognose zu erstellen. Das Repräsentantenhaus wird jedoch aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach  in der Hand der Republikaner bleiben. Die Unterschiede zwischen den beiden Präsidentschaftskandidaten sind beträchtlich und sowohl für die amerikanische Wirtschaftspolitik als auch für die Weltwirtschaft höchst folgenreich, obwohl die Umsetzung der jeweiligen Programme von der Zusammensetzung des Kongresses abhängig sein wird.

Die wichtigsten Unterschiede zwischen den beiden Kandidaten können folgendermaßen zusammengefasst werden:

Ausgaben. Obama hat die Ausgaben dramatisch erhöht. Er würde wahrscheinlich viele seiner vorübergehenden Programme fortsetzen (wie Milton Friedman einst bemerkte: „Es gibt nichts Dauerhafteres als ein vorübergehendes staatliches Programm.“); den staatlichen Einfluss auf die Auswahl der Gewinner und Verlierer hinsichtlich grüner Energie beträchtlich steigern; die Ausgaben für Bildung und Infrastruktur erhöhen sowie die Verteidigungsausgaben substanziell reduzieren.

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