Paul Lachine

Les États-Unis dans l’impasse économique

CAMBRIDGE – Les États-Unis semblent piégés dans une dangereuse impasse économique. Le refus des Républicains et des Démocrates de céder sur le budget empêche le gouvernement de négocier son énorme déficit budgétaire et augmente rapidement la dette nationale. En effet, le Congressional Budget Office prévoit une possible augmentation de la dette nationale à 82% du PIB au cours des dix prochaines années – plus du double du taux d’endettement de 2008.

Ces prévisions reposent en outre sur des hypothèses très optimistes de forte croissance économique et de faibles taux d'intérêt. Avec une croissance plus lente et des taux d'intérêt plus habituels, le taux d’endettement pourrait atteindre facilement plus de 100% en 2021 et dépasser 150% d'ici 2030.

Les raisons principales de l'accélération de la croissance de la dette du gouvernement, sont le vieillissement rapide de la population des États-Unis et l'augmentation du coût de la pension universelle et des programmes de santé – sécurité sociale et assurance maladie. La plupart des experts croient que limiter l'augmentation de la dette va exiger un ralentissement de la croissance de ces programmes « de droit » et l'augmentation des impôts proportionnellement au PIB.

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