Le choix contraint de l’Amérique

NEWPORT BEACH – Les stéréotypes relatifs à l’élection présidentielle de novembre aux États-Unis ne devraient cette fois se vérifier qu’en partie. Certes, les considérations économiques joueront un rôle déterminant quant au résultat. Mais la possibilité pour le vainqueur d’une bataille à la bassesse de plus en plus marquée de se permettre, une fois au pouvoir, de mener des politiques considérablement différentes de celles de son adversaire, apparaît bien plus incertaine.

Lorsque débutera le prochain mandat présidentiel en janvier 2013, et contrairement aux messages actuellement lancés par les campagnes d’Obama et de Romney, le vainqueur ne bénéficiera que d’une marge de manœuvre bien limitée en matière de politique économique. C’est en effet ailleurs que se situent les possibilités de différences pour l’Amérique, et celles-ci n’ont pas encore été bien saisies par les électeurs. Elles résident dans les politiques sociales qui accompagneront un ensemble de mesures économiques quant à elles globalement similaires ; c’est ici que les différences entre les deux candidats sont réellement significatives. 

Celui qui remportera l’élection devra faire face à une croissance économique apathique de 2% voire moins l’an prochain, qui pourrait même totalement décrocher. Le taux chômage sera encore beaucoup trop élevé, et presque pour moitié correspondant à un chômage insoluble de longue durée – sans compter (à tort) les millions d’Américains qui ne figurent plus dans la population active.

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