iStock / Getty Images Plus Comments 15 Add to Bookmarks chinese Chinese Arabic English German Russian Spanish Facebook Twitter Whatsapp 美国多边困境的一块双边遮羞布 May 23, 2018 Stephen S. Roach 发自纽黑文——美中两国似乎已经从贸易战的悬崖边上撤了回来,这是个好消息。虽然细节披露不多,但5月19日达成的协议消解了紧张局势并承诺展开进一步谈判。而坏消息则是这一系列谈判的框架是有缺陷的:要想解决美国在一个相互联系的世界中产生的基础经济失衡问题,光靠跟任何一个国家达成协议都是杯水车薪。针对国际经济问题的双边和多边解决方案之间长期存在着脱节。1930年5月,1028名美国知名学术经济学家向时任总统的赫伯特·胡佛(Herbert Hoover)写了一封公开信,敦促他否决尚未通过的斯穆特-霍利(Smoot-Hawley)关税法案。胡佛忽视了这一建议,结果随之而来的全球贸易战把一场原本小规模的萧条搞“大”了。而如今特朗普总统对如何实现“让美国再度伟大起来”这句口号的解读方式也与前者异曲同工。政客们一直都偏爱双边的观点,因为这可以将矛盾简单化:你通过针对特定国家来“解决”问题。相比之下多边手段得到了大多数经济学家的赞同,因为它强调了储蓄和投资之间错配所导致的国际收支扭曲。而这种简单和复杂之间的对比正是经济学家经常在公众辩论中落入下风的明显重要原因。须知这门晦涩的学科从来都不是以清晰明了著称的。 We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate. To continue reading, subscribe now. Subscribe Get unlimited access to PS premium content, including in-depth commentaries, book reviews, exclusive interviews, On Point, the Big Picture, the PS Archive, and our annual year-ahead magazine. Already have an account or want to create one? Log in LinkedIn Google+ Bookmark Email Print 15 Facebook Twitter Whatsapp Show More Show More Contact Us http://prosyn.org/RdDhchH/zh;
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发自纽黑文——美中两国似乎已经从贸易战的悬崖边上撤了回来,这是个好消息。虽然细节披露不多,但5月19日达成的协议消解了紧张局势并承诺展开进一步谈判。而坏消息则是这一系列谈判的框架是有缺陷的:要想解决美国在一个相互联系的世界中产生的基础经济失衡问题,光靠跟任何一个国家达成协议都是杯水车薪。
针对国际经济问题的双边和多边解决方案之间长期存在着脱节。1930年5月,1028名美国知名学术经济学家向时任总统的赫伯特·胡佛(Herbert Hoover)写了一封公开信,敦促他否决尚未通过的斯穆特-霍利(Smoot-Hawley)关税法案。胡佛忽视了这一建议,结果随之而来的全球贸易战把一场原本小规模的萧条搞“大”了。而如今特朗普总统对如何实现“让美国再度伟大起来”这句口号的解读方式也与前者异曲同工。
政客们一直都偏爱双边的观点,因为这可以将矛盾简单化:你通过针对特定国家来“解决”问题。相比之下多边手段得到了大多数经济学家的赞同,因为它强调了储蓄和投资之间错配所导致的国际收支扭曲。而这种简单和复杂之间的对比正是经济学家经常在公众辩论中落入下风的明显重要原因。须知这门晦涩的学科从来都不是以清晰明了著称的。
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