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اتركوا الرنمينبي خارج محادثات التجارة الأميركية الصينية

May 3, 2019 Kenneth Rogoff

كمبريدج ــ تُرى هل تؤدي اتفاقية تجارية أميركية صينية ربما تكون وشيكة إلى إرباك دورات الأعمال العالمية أو حتى غرس بذور الأزمة المالية الآسيوية المقبلة؟ إذا أسفر الاتفاق النهائي ــ على افتراض وجوده حقا ــ إلى إجبار الصين على الالتزام إلى أجل غير مسمى بنظام سعر الصرف العتيق المفرط التصلب، فربما تكون الإجابة "أجل".

إن الإبقاء على سعر صرف الرنمينبي مستقرا مقابل الدولار الأميركي يتطلب إما أن تضاهي السلطات الصينية التغييرات في أسعار الفائدة الأميركية، أو تمر بالتشوهات المرتبطة بضوابط رأس المال في محاولة التعويض عن ضغوط أسعار الصرف بطرق أخرى. لكن الصين ببساطة أكبر وأكثر انتشارا على مستوى العالم من أن يُفرَض عليها الالتزام بسياسة سعر صرف تناسب بشكل أفضل اقتصادا صغيرا مفتوحا.

علاوة على ذلك، لا يتناسب أي من النهجين للإبقاء على الرنمينبي مستقرا ــ الحفاظ على تعادل سعر الفائدة أو تطبيق ضوابط رأس المال ــ مع اقتصاد نادرا ما تتزامن دورات أعماله مع نظيراتها في الولايات المتحدة. مع انخفاض اتجاه الأداء الاقتصادي، والإفراط في البناء في قطاع الإسكان، والحكومات الإقليمية المفرطة في الاستدانة، من المحتم أن تواجه الصين مشاكل حساسة سياسيا في التعامل مع النمو. وعندما يحدث ذلك، يجب أن يكون بنك الشعب الصيني قادرا على تخفيف الشروط النقدية دون اضطرار إلى القلق بشأن دعم سعر الصرف.

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Kenneth Rogoff

Writing for PS since 2002
183 Commentaries

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

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B Wilds Aug 6, 2019

The link between China and Japan recently raised its head in the currency markets when President Trump upped the ante over trade-talks. The yen has become a major conduit by which wealth is transferred out of China.

This tight relationship can be seen each time trouble surfaces in China's economy. When this happens the yen rises in value as wealth exits China through business back-channels. More on the economic link between China and Japan in the following article.

https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-yen-is-major-conduit-for-wealth.html
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kiers sohn May 14, 2019

I think the US sees China's FX reserves as a threat to US influence. A fixed currency regime will "solve" that problem, taking some discretion away from teh stock pile of reserves. It's a trojan horse argument, but likely, the Chinese see through it.
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Mauricio Duran-Loriga May 6, 2019

Never in history has a war for reserve currency status been fought on exchange rate grounds.

Trump has forced the Chinese to whatever. I mean, do you read what you write?

China has flashed all possible warning lights as being in the path towards complete de-dollarization.

But make sure you understand that still for many years into the future, both empires can and will live parallel lives without facing fatal shocks. The first in line to collapse in the China-US war is Europe. Guess why...

Ken, you can do better.
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Elizabeth Pula May 5, 2019

"American negotiators will have demonstrated their bargaining power, but not their wisdom." Just a side note: They already have demonstrated their lack of wisdom. China is the real winner, and possesses the real wisdom. China, as a nation OWNS its own LAND. China does not allow anyone else to own it, nor own its land. American Negotiators need to open their eyes to the fact that passing deals and bargaining power are absolutely meaningless if you do not own your own land. The United States as a nation does NOT recognize nor acknowledge that essential bit of fact in the real world. American Negotiators are selling out their own citizens, and future generations, including their own progeny, for a quick buck for themselves today.
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Elizabeth Pula May 5, 2019

Issues affecting "plant the seeds" also needs to be considered from the point of view of the American Farms predicament in the US. Who will be the real winners and who will own the land as US Farmers increase their bankruptcy filings? Losing the industry and losing the LAND ownership rights is a real issue in the US that practically no one is paying any attention to while it happens. Consolidating land ownership in the US to new owners that are often corporate fronts often not traceable due to poor tax records on the county level is going to be the next revelation of the transitioning US economy to what??? There is a little bit more at risk than the immediate US China Trade talks and the valuation of monies, and exchange rate risks. There are certain risks that no one in the US will be able to ignore as land ownership is effectively being diverted into hands that are international with no interest in any concerns of any citizens now or in the future that may even attempt to still attempt to reside and survive in the geographical territory that has been called the United States of America.

US port authorities are not US controlled. Now. the new trend will be the new reality of Agricultural lands in the US to not be US controlled, nor OWNED by US citizens.

When citizens have no access to lands for their own agricultural needs, you have nothing left for survival of the members of the socially contracted states on any level .

"The trade war with China, sparked by the tariffs Trump slapped on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods, has just entered its tenth month. In response, China levied on about $50 billion of US agricultural exports last summer including soy, corn, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, beef, pork, poultry, fish, dairy products, nuts, and vegetables.

China is a top buyer of American agricultural commodities. Since the tit-for-tat tariff disputes last year, exports to China have significantly decreased -- straining American farmers whose supply chains into the second largest economy were destroyed overnight."

Quote is from ZH 05/04/2019. I really liked the part about straining American farmers whose supply chains into the second largest economy were destroyed overnight.
I think it is one of the most significant aspect of the trade talk debate that is definitely being ignored in public, especially in the US, by the left and right, and all positions in between. The real tragedy that will hit everybody in the US is just being ignored with talk about supply chains of telecommunication peripherals-basically nonessential garbage that are passing fancies for amusement, polluting or not, colluding or not.
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cuiwk0320 May 5, 2019

Finally someone pointed out. China didn't manipulate exchange rate to keep it low. If they did, they kept it high. A Chinese citizen is only allowed to buy $50k per year and international transfer is strictly regulated. Many wealth Chinese households have intention to invest in real estate overseas, but not able to.
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christopher tingus May 4, 2019

Unfortunately, the inevitable Chinese-Russian and Indian alliance, coupled w the failed EU leadership to be usurped shortly as We see Karl Guttenberg take the reigns from Merkel and German nationalism is revived...the Iranian thugs in Tehran will have much to contend with and it is apparent that China will spin off its own currency for Asia and inevitably War again looms ahead...a third world war and conflagration led by self serving, arrogant politicians who could give a dam about the "deplorables" as Clinton referred to the good People....the ride ahead will be increasingly turbulent for man made laws and the lust for greed and power...no substitute for God's teaching to adhere to...all decisions have consequences....
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Rick Puglisi May 4, 2019

It is not the flexible exchange rate as much as the acquiring of foreign official reserves that is the problem. Economists think that being a reserve currency is a privilege and it is; but only for the rich. For the working and middle class it is a disaster and we are fools for allowing excess reserves.
The US should start taxing official foreign reserves that finance trade deficits (not on a country-by-country basis but rather attributing the total net trade balance). If the US has balanced trade overall, no tax and the currencies can do whatever it wants. Allowing gov't and state-owned/guaranteed corp to steal our profits and jobs is foolish.
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Paul Friesen May 3, 2019

Observation suggest that the Chinese administration is too smart to agree to fixed exchange rates. As the author suggests, it would be a recipe for disaster, as history has so often shown.
- Godfree Roberts May 4, 2019
  
  "economic reforms in China, which seem to have stalled or gone into reverse"
  
  By 'reforms,' Professor Rogoff means "becoming more like America."
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اتركوا الرنمينبي خارج محادثات التجارة الأميركية الصينية

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