rogoff180_ FREDERIC J. BROWNAFPGetty Images)

اتركوا الرنمينبي خارج محادثات التجارة الأميركية الصينية

May 3, 2019 Kenneth Rogoff

كمبريدج ــ تُرى هل تؤدي اتفاقية تجارية أميركية صينية ربما تكون وشيكة إلى إرباك دورات الأعمال العالمية أو حتى غرس بذور الأزمة المالية الآسيوية المقبلة؟ إذا أسفر الاتفاق النهائي ــ على افتراض وجوده حقا ــ إلى إجبار الصين على الالتزام إلى أجل غير مسمى بنظام سعر الصرف العتيق المفرط التصلب، فربما تكون الإجابة "أجل".

إن الإبقاء على سعر صرف الرنمينبي مستقرا مقابل الدولار الأميركي يتطلب إما أن تضاهي السلطات الصينية التغييرات في أسعار الفائدة الأميركية، أو تمر بالتشوهات المرتبطة بضوابط رأس المال في محاولة التعويض عن ضغوط أسعار الصرف بطرق أخرى. لكن الصين ببساطة أكبر وأكثر انتشارا على مستوى العالم من أن يُفرَض عليها الالتزام بسياسة سعر صرف تناسب بشكل أفضل اقتصادا صغيرا مفتوحا.

علاوة على ذلك، لا يتناسب أي من النهجين للإبقاء على الرنمينبي مستقرا ــ الحفاظ على تعادل سعر الفائدة أو تطبيق ضوابط رأس المال ــ مع اقتصاد نادرا ما تتزامن دورات أعماله مع نظيراتها في الولايات المتحدة. مع انخفاض اتجاه الأداء الاقتصادي، والإفراط في البناء في قطاع الإسكان، والحكومات الإقليمية المفرطة في الاستدانة، من المحتم أن تواجه الصين مشاكل حساسة سياسيا في التعامل مع النمو. وعندما يحدث ذلك، يجب أن يكون بنك الشعب الصيني قادرا على تخفيف الشروط النقدية دون اضطرار إلى القلق بشأن دعم سعر الصرف.

To continue reading, register now.

As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.

Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.

Already have an account? Log in

Support High-Quality Commentary

For more than 25 years, Project Syndicate has been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world's foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. At a time of unprecedented uncertainty, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.

But there is no doubt that we, like so many other media organizations nowadays, are under growing strain. If you are in a position to support us, please subscribe now.

As a subscriber, you will enjoy unlimited access to our On Point suite of long reads, book reviews, and insider interviews; Big Picture topical collections; Say More contributor interviews; Opinion Has It podcast features; The Year Ahead magazine, the full PS archive, and much more. You will also directly support our mission of delivering the highest-quality commentary on the world's most pressing issues to as wide an audience as possible.

By helping us to build a truly open world of ideas, every PS subscriber makes a real difference. Thank you.

Subscribe Now

Kenneth Rogoff

Writing for PS since 2002
217 Commentaries

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. He is co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly and author of The Curse of Cash.

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 10 Comments on this article

B Wilds Aug 6, 2019

The link between China and Japan recently raised its head in the currency markets when President Trump upped the ante over trade-talks. The yen has become a major conduit by which wealth is transferred out of China.

This tight relationship can be seen each time trouble surfaces in China's economy. When this happens the yen rises in value as wealth exits China through business back-channels. More on the economic link between China and Japan in the following article.

https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-yen-is-major-conduit-for-wealth.html
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
kiers sohn May 14, 2019

I think the US sees China's FX reserves as a threat to US influence. A fixed currency regime will "solve" that problem, taking some discretion away from teh stock pile of reserves. It's a trojan horse argument, but likely, the Chinese see through it.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Mauricio Duran-Loriga May 6, 2019

Never in history has a war for reserve currency status been fought on exchange rate grounds.

Trump has forced the Chinese to whatever. I mean, do you read what you write?

China has flashed all possible warning lights as being in the path towards complete de-dollarization.

But make sure you understand that still for many years into the future, both empires can and will live parallel lives without facing fatal shocks. The first in line to collapse in the China-US war is Europe. Guess why...

Ken, you can do better.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Elizabeth Pula May 5, 2019

"American negotiators will have demonstrated their bargaining power, but not their wisdom." Just a side note: They already have demonstrated their lack of wisdom. China is the real winner, and possesses the real wisdom. China, as a nation OWNS its own LAND. China does not allow anyone else to own it, nor own its land. American Negotiators need to open their eyes to the fact that passing deals and bargaining power are absolutely meaningless if you do not own your own land. The United States as a nation does NOT recognize nor acknowledge that essential bit of fact in the real world. American Negotiators are selling out their own citizens, and future generations, including their own progeny, for a quick buck for themselves today.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Elizabeth Pula May 5, 2019

Issues affecting "plant the seeds" also needs to be considered from the point of view of the American Farms predicament in the US. Who will be the real winners and who will own the land as US Farmers increase their bankruptcy filings? Losing the industry and losing the LAND ownership rights is a real issue in the US that practically no one is paying any attention to while it happens. Consolidating land ownership in the US to new owners that are often corporate fronts often not traceable due to poor tax records on the county level is going to be the next revelation of the transitioning US economy to what??? There is a little bit more at risk than the immediate US China Trade talks and the valuation of monies, and exchange rate risks. There are certain risks that no one in the US will be able to ignore as land ownership is effectively being diverted into hands that are international with no interest in any concerns of any citizens now or in the future that may even attempt to still attempt to reside and survive in the geographical territory that has been called the United States of America.

US port authorities are not US controlled. Now. the new trend will be the new reality of Agricultural lands in the US to not be US controlled, nor OWNED by US citizens.

When citizens have no access to lands for their own agricultural needs, you have nothing left for survival of the members of the socially contracted states on any level .

"The trade war with China, sparked by the tariffs Trump slapped on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods, has just entered its tenth month. In response, China levied on about $50 billion of US agricultural exports last summer including soy, corn, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, beef, pork, poultry, fish, dairy products, nuts, and vegetables.

China is a top buyer of American agricultural commodities. Since the tit-for-tat tariff disputes last year, exports to China have significantly decreased -- straining American farmers whose supply chains into the second largest economy were destroyed overnight."

Quote is from ZH 05/04/2019. I really liked the part about straining American farmers whose supply chains into the second largest economy were destroyed overnight.
I think it is one of the most significant aspect of the trade talk debate that is definitely being ignored in public, especially in the US, by the left and right, and all positions in between. The real tragedy that will hit everybody in the US is just being ignored with talk about supply chains of telecommunication peripherals-basically nonessential garbage that are passing fancies for amusement, polluting or not, colluding or not.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Kevin Blk May 5, 2019

Finally someone pointed out. China didn't manipulate exchange rate to keep it low. If they did, they kept it high. A Chinese citizen is only allowed to buy $50k per year and international transfer is strictly regulated. Many wealth Chinese households have intention to invest in real estate overseas, but not able to.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Paul Friesen May 3, 2019

Observation suggest that the Chinese administration is too smart to agree to fixed exchange rates. As the author suggests, it would be a recipe for disaster, as history has so often shown.
- Godfree Roberts May 4, 2019
  
  "economic reforms in China, which seem to have stalled or gone into reverse"
  
  By 'reforms,' Professor Rogoff means "becoming more like America."
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/FDjd1PKar

اتركوا الرنمينبي خارج محادثات التجارة الأميركية الصينية

Support High-Quality Commentary

New Comment

Email this piece to a friend

Contact us

Log in/Register

اتركوا الرنمينبي خارج محادثات التجارة الأميركية الصينية

Support High-Quality Commentary

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification