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美中贸易协议没有捷径

发自纽黑文—交易者总是知道该何时止损。而那个自诩天下第一交易者的人——美国总统特朗普——也是如此。虽然他承诺要与中国“做一笔大交易”,但10月11日举行的第十三轮双边贸易谈判却有点虎头蛇尾,只收获了一个掺了水的局部协议:“第一阶段”协议。

这本该发生的。特朗普政府三管齐下的谈判策略一直以来都是以大幅减少双边贸易赤字,解决冲突的框架(以解决从所谓的知识产权盗窃,强迫技术转让到服务业改革和所谓非关税壁垒等问题)还有严格的执行机制为特征。根据美国首席谈判代表之一,财政部长史蒂芬·姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin)的说法,大交易在5月份已经完成了约90%,只不过这一切随后都在吵吵嚷嚷的相互指责和针锋相对的关税战中土崩瓦解了。

但是希望总是有的。随着两大经济体开始展现出明显的疲软迹象,人们开始乐观地认为即便美国将众多政策日益武器化——威胁实施资本管制,传言要让美国各大交易所挂牌的中国企业退市,新的签证限制,把大量中国企业列入可怕的实体名单,据说还要让国会通过2019年《香港人权与民主法案》——理性最终还是会占上风的。而金融市场则对这些传言视若无睹,甚至在10月11日谈判消息公布之前还涨了一波。

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