Estados Unidos y Europa

Profundamente frustrados por las políticas de la administración Bush, mucha gente y muchos gobiernos en Europa esperan un cambio fundamental en la política exterior norteamericana después de las próximas elecciones presidenciales. Pero se necesitaría un milagro político de mediana envergadura para que estas esperanzas no terminen en agua de borrajas, y este tipo de milagro no sucederá -no importa quién sea elegido.

La administración Bush cometió numerosas equivocaciones de política exterior con consecuencias de largo alcance. Pero Bush ni inventó el unilateralismo norteamericano ni originó la fisura trasatlántica entre Estados Unidos y Europa. Sin duda, Bush reforzó ambas tendencias, pero sus verdaderas causas residen en factores históricos objetivos, como el hecho de que Estados Unidos sea la única potencia mundial desde 1989 y la debilidad autoinfligida de Europa. Mientras Estados Unidos siga siendo la única potencia mundial, el próximo presidente norteamericano no podrá ni querrá cambiar el marco básico de la política exterior norteamericana.

Por supuesto que será importante quién gane la presidencia: un candidato del que se espere una continuación de la política exterior de Bush o alguien dispuesto a un nuevo comienzo. En el primer caso, la fisura trasatlántica se agudizará dramáticamente. Cuatro o incluso ocho años más de política estadounidense al estilo de Bush causaría un daño tal en la sustancia de la alianza trasatlántica que amenazaría su propia existencia.

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