美国和欧洲

在对布什政府的政策深感挫伤之后,欧洲的许多人和政府都希望在即将进行的总统大选之后,美国的外交政策能有根本性的变化。但要这些希望别成为失望,就需要有一场中等规模的政治奇迹,而这样的奇迹将不会发生—不管谁当选。

布什政府在外交政策上屡犯大错,后果深远。但布什既没有发明美国的单边主义,也没有造成大西洋两岸欧美之间的裂隙。确切地说,布什强化了这两种趋势,但究其原因还在于客观的历史因素,也就是自1989年以来美国在世界上的一家独大和欧洲自作自受的软弱。只要美国仍然还是世界唯一的超级大国,下一任美国总统就既不能也不愿改变美国外交政策的基本框架。

当然,谁赢得总统宝座也很重要:是一个会继续布什外交政策的候选人,还是一个准备重新开始的人。如果是前一种情况,欧美之间的裂隙会进一步加深。4年,甚至8年的“布什式”美国政策的继续会给跨大西洋联盟造成实质性的破坏,甚至危及其生存。

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