Tous les chemins de la relance passent par la Chine

BEIJING – Maintenant que les « pousses vertes » de la relance se sont fanées, les débats sur les paquets fiscaux ont repris de plus belle. Aux Etats-Unis, ceux qui défendent un nouveau paquet fiscal font remarquer que c’était de toute façon irréaliste de penser qu’un plan de relance à hauteur de 787 milliards de dollars pouvait compenser une baisse de 3000 milliards de dépenses du secteur privé. Mais le chômage a augmenté de manière plus marquée et plus rapidement que prévu. Combiné à la baisse persistante des prix de l’immobilier, il n’est pas étonnant que les dépenses de consommation restent faibles.

Les banques, recapitalisées juste ce qu’il fallait pour les maintenir à flot, ont toujours des bilans incertains. Leur réticence subséquente à accorder des prêts restreint les investissements. Dans le même temps, constatant la baisse des recettes fiscales liée à une diminution des revenus imposables l’an dernier, les gouvernements réduisent autant que possible les dépenses. Si l’idée de mesures de relance supplémentaires était défendable en février, elle l’est encore plus aujourd’hui.

Mais le contraire se défend aussi. Le déficit américain a atteint le chiffre alarmant de 12 pour cent du PIB et la dette publique en part du revenu national doit doubler, pour s’élever à 80 pour cent du PIB. Penser que les Etats-Unis seront capables de s’affranchir du poids de la dette, comme la Finlande et la Suède après leur crise financière dans les années 1990, n’est pas réaliste.

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