美国的赤字,中国的心病

北京——现如今,复苏的“绿芽”已经枯萎,该不该再搞财政刺激的辩论变本加厉。在美国,主张继续出台一揽子刺激方案的人认为,以刺激计划的7870亿美元来抵消私人部门减支3万亿美元的影响实在是一厢情愿。失业率激增,超出预期。再算上持续走低的房价,不难理解消费为什么仍然低迷。

虽然银行经过了资产重组,但那只够它们继续营业,其资产负债表依然脆弱。惜贷之风继续制约着投资。与此同时,由于去年的居民应纳税收入减少,岁入下滑,一些州政府正发疯般地削减开支。如果说今年2月的时候有出台新刺激计划的需要,那眼下这种需要就更迫切了。

然而,反对出台新刺激计划的理由也很有力。美国联邦赤字已达到GDP的12%,值得警惕;公债的GDP占比预计将翻倍,达到80%。认为美国能靠经济增长还清债务,就像上世纪90年代芬兰和瑞典在遭受金融危机之后所做的那样,这种看法似乎不太现实。

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