Die Ukraine und darüber hinaus

GENF – Aus der akuten Krise in der Ukraine ist eine chronische Krise geworden. Die Hauptfrage – wird Russland es wagen, auf dem ukrainischen Festland einzumarschieren – ist beantwortet: Derzeit nicht. Wie also geht es weiter?

Die feste und geeinte Reaktion des Westens auf die russische Annexion der Krim kam für den Kreml offensichtlich unerwartet. Das Telefongespräch Präsident Wladimir Putins mit US-Präsident Barack Obama am 28. März hat das russische Verlangen, über eine „Deeskalation“ zu sprechen, deutlich gemacht. Putins Hauptziele sind nun die Aufhebung der russischen Blockade der abtrünnigen prorussischen moldawischen Region Transnistrien und die „Föderalisierung“ der Ukraine (ein Euphemismus für die Strategie des Kremls, durch die Hintertür die Kontrolle über die östlichen und südlichen Landesteile zu erringen).

Doch kann es auf absehbare Zeit keine Rückkehr zum „Business as usual“ geben. Russlands Einmarsch auf der Krim und deren Annexion haben in der Weltpolitik unbeabsichtigte tektonische Verschiebungen ausgelöst. Auch wenn die langfristigen Auswirkungen nach wie vor unklar sind: Die unmittelbaren Folgen sind klar.

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