Syrian kids after operation euphrates shield in aleppo Anadolu Agency

Après Alep

DENVER – La fin des combats dans Alep ne marquera pas la fin de la guerre en Syrie, malgré le cessez-le-feu qui vient d’être conclu sur l’ensemble du pays. Elle n’allégera pas non plus les souffrances de la population, dont une grande part a été déplacée. Ce qu’aura fait le siège d’Alep, c’est inscrire la Syrie dans l’histoire comme un « problème tout droit venu de l’enfer », pour reprendre la formule de l’ancien secrétaire d’État Warren Christopher. Et comme des autres pandémoniums nés récemment de conflits régionaux, en Bosnie (c’est de la Bosnie dont parlait ainsi Christopher) et au Rwanda, les historiens du futur retiendront du conflit syrien la spectaculaire faillite diplomatique qui permit son escalade.

La bonne diplomatie commence par l’analyse détaillée des intérêts en jeu, non seulement du pays en question, mais des puissances extérieures concernées. Elle exige une évaluation minutieuse des moyens par lesquels la poursuite de ces intérêts affectera l’ordre régional et international. Elle cherche alors les voies qui permettront de renforcer la capacité des puissances régionales ou mondiales à résoudre le problème.

Tout au long de ce processus, des valeurs universellement partagées et constamment réaffirmées – les deux points sont essentiels si l’on veut permettre à des acteurs dissemblables de travailler ensemble à la solution du problème et d’en surmonter les difficultés – doivent indiquer un cap moral et définir un champ d’action commun. Il est indispensable de garantir que ces valeurs ne deviennent pas des armes, que l’un des acteurs pourrait retourner contre un autre, exacerbant les tensions et décrédibilisant les solutions.

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