Syrian kids after operation euphrates shield in aleppo Anadolu Agency

阿勒颇之后

丹佛—阿拉破战事的结束不会结束叙利亚战争,尽管已经达成全国停火协议。阿勒颇市民的苦难也得不到缓解——其中许多人已经流离失所。阿勒颇围城赢得了什么呢?赢得了叙利亚的历史地位——用美国前国务卿沃伦·克里斯托弗(Warren Christopher)的话说,叙利亚是又一个“来自地狱的问题”。和其他地狱般的近期地区冲突,如波斯尼亚(克里斯托弗的话就是针对波斯尼亚说的)和卢旺达一样,未来历史学家眼中的叙利亚冲突的一个关键特征是外交方面的重大失败导致冲突全面升级。

好的外交必须从敏锐的利益分析开始,分析对象既包括问题所在国家,也包括相关外部力量。必须仔细评估追求各种利益如何影响地区和国际秩序。必须找出办法增强地区或世界力量帮助解决问题的能力。

在整个过程中,必须通过不断得到加强的形成普遍共识的价值观——这既是让众多行动方和衷共济的关键,也是解决问题和挑战的关键——提供道德指南和共同行动基础。至关重要的是确保价值观不会变成某个行动方针对另一个行动方、加剧冲突、破坏解决方案的武器。

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