Gegenseitig zugesicherte Abhängigkeit

LONDON – Während des Kalten Krieges verhinderte die „gegenseitig zugesicherte Vernichtung“, dass der nukleare Rüstungswettlauf in die Katastrophe münden konnte: ein potenzieller Angreifer wäre unmittelbar mit einem Vergeltungsschlag konfrontiert gewesen, der unweigerlich zur Vernichtung beider Seiten geführt hätte. Heute haben wir es mit einem ganz anderen Wettlauf zu tun – nämlich mit einem Wettlauf  um die lebenswichtigen Ressourcen der Erde. Dieser droht die  Stabilität in wichtigen Regionen der Welt zu untergraben. Die zunehmende wechselseitige Abhängigkeit der Länder hinsichtlich Nahrung, Wasser und Energie erfordert eine weltweite Antwort auf das Problem der Nachhaltigkeit auf höchster politischer Ebene.

Im Unterschied zum nuklearen Rüstungswettlauf des 20. Jahrhunderts verläuft die Agenda der Ressourcensicherheit nicht linear. Die gegenseitig zugesicherte Vernichtung wurde während des Kalten Krieges in Äußerungen beider Seiten explizit anerkannt. Im Wettlauf um die Ressourcen, der das 21. Jahrhundert prägt, droht hingegen kein Akteur dem anderen direkt oder indirekt mit Exportbeschränkungen in den Bereichen Nahrungsmittel oder Energie, aber die systemischen Risiken tragen alle.

Die Länder sind zwangsläufig voneinander abhängig geworden und Klimawandel, Wasserknappheit sowie der Verlust der ökologischen Belastbarkeit verstärken allesamt die Volatilität dieser gegenseitigen Abhängigkeit. In einer Welt begrenzter und knapper Ressourcen werden Länder und Unternehmen gezwungen sein, Entscheidungen zu treffen, die die Sicherheit der anderen beeinflussen. 

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