Pour une réponse internationale coordonnée face aux risques globaux

LONDRES – Pendant la Guerre froide, la certitude d'une destruction mutuelle a empêché la course à l'arme nucléaire de déboucher sur une catastrophe : un agresseur potentiel aurait subi des représailles immédiates qui l'auraient annihilé. Aujourd'hui, c'est une course très différente qui a lieu, une course pour les ressources vitales de la Terre qui menace la stabilité de régions clés de la planète. L'interdépendance croissante des différents pays pour la nourriture, l'eau et l'énergie exige qu'au plus haut niveau les dirigeants politiques apportent une réponse globale au défi de la gestion durable des ressources.

Contrairement à la course à l'arme nucléaire du 20° siècle, les problèmes de sécurité des ressources ne se posent pas de manière linéaire. Lors de la Guerre froide, les adversaires reconnaissaient explicitement la certitude d'une destruction mutuelle en cas de conflit. Par contre dans la course aux ressources qui marque le 21° siècle, aucun acteur ne menace directement ou indirectement les autres d'arrêter les exportations de nourriture ou d'énergie, mais ils tous sont exposés aux risques systémiques.

L'interdépendance des nations s'est accrue, de même que sa volatilité en raison du réchauffement climatique, du stress hydrique et de la diminution de la résilience écologique. Dans un monde où les ressources sont limitées, les Etats et les entreprises seront amenés à prendre des décisions qui affectent la sécurité de tous.

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