Gegarandeerde wederzijdse afhankelijkheid

LONDEN – Tijdens de Koude Oorlog zorgde de zekerheid van de “wederzijds gegarandeerde vernietiging” ervoor dat de kernwapenrace niet in een catastrofe eindigde: een aanvaller zou met onmiddellijke vergelding worden geconfronteerd, wat onvermijdelijk zou uitlopen op de ondergang van beide partijen. Vandaag de dag vindt een heel ander soort race plaats – een race om de cruciale grondstoffen van de wereld, die de stabiliteit van belangrijke regio's in de wereld dreigt te ondermijnen. De toenemende afhankelijkheid van landen van elkaars voedsel-, water- en energievoorraden vereist dat het mondiale streven naar duurzaamheid naar het hoogste politieke niveau wordt getild.

Anders dan de kernwapenrace van de twintigste eeuw is de agenda van de grondstoffenzekerheid niet lineair. Tijdens de Koude Oorlog werd de wederzijds gegarandeerde vernietiging in verklaringen van beide kampen expliciet erkend. In de grondstoffenrace van de 21ste eeuw dreigt geen enkele speler andere spelers direct of indirect de voedsel- of energie-export aan banden te leggen, maar worden allen met dezelfde systeemrisico's geconfronteerd.

Landen zijn onvermijdelijk afhankelijk van elkaar geworden, en klimaatverandering, waterschaarste en het verlies aan ecologische veerkracht versterken allemaal de wisselvalligheid van deze wederzijdse afhankelijkheid. In een wereld van beperkte en schaarse hulpbronnen zullen landen en bedrijven gedwongen worden besluiten te nemen die elkaars veiligheid raken.

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