Zajištěná vzájemná závislost

LONDÝN – Během studené války jistota „vzájemně zajištěné destrukce“ držela kurs závodů v jaderném zbrojení mimo směřování ke katastrofě: případný útočník by čelil okamžité odvetě, což by nevyhnutelně vedlo k totálnímu zničení obou stran. Dnes probíhají úplně jiné závody, v nichž se soupeří o stěžejní zdroje planety, a hrozí, že podlomí stabilitu v klíčových regionech světa. Sílící závislost některých zemí na potravinách, vodě a energii odjinud vyžaduje, aby se globální reakce na udržitelnost dostala na nejvyšší politickou úroveň.

Na rozdíl od závodů v jaderném zbrojení dvacátého století není agenda zdrojové bezpečnosti přímočará. Během studené války vzájemně zajištěnou destrukci výslovně přiznávala prohlášení obou stran. V soupeření o zdroje, jímž se vyznačuje jedenadvacáté století, žádný aktér přímo ani nepřímo nevyhrožuje ostatním, že omezí vývoz potravin či energií, leč systémové riziko nesou všichni.

Státy na sobě nevyhnutelně začaly být navzájem závislé a kolísavost této vzájemné závislosti ještě zvyšuje změna klimatu, vodní stres a úbytek ekologické odolnosti. Ve světě omezených a nedostatkových zdrojů budou státy a firmy nuceny dělat rozhodnutí ovlivňující bezpečnost ostatních.

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