确保相互依赖

伦敦—冷战期间,“确保互相摧毁”的确定性让核武竞赛远离灾难性后果:人若犯我,我必犯人,双方都难逃灭绝的命运。如今,一场完全不同的竞赛正在展开——地球关键资源竞赛,这场竞赛可能会动摇世界关键地区的稳定性。各国日益依赖他国的粮食、水和能源,这要求我们把可持续性的全球响应列为最高政治等级。

与二十世纪的核武竞赛不同,资源安全日程不是线性的。确保互相摧毁白纸黑字地写在冷战期间对立双方的声明中。在成为二十一世纪特征的资源竞赛中,没有哪个行动方直接或间接地威胁其他行动方减少粮食和能源出口,但所有人都承担着系统性风险。

各国都不可避免地变得互相依赖,气候变化、水压力和生态恢复力的下降都增加了这一互相依赖的波动性。世界的资源是有限而稀缺的,国家和公司将被迫做出互相影响安全的决定。

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