solar panels Bloomberg/Getty Images

Planeta v reflexní vestě

CAMBRIDGE – Tolik oxidu uhličitého jako dnes bylo v atmosféře naposledy asi před třemi miliony let – v době, kdy hladiny moří byly o 10-30 metrů výš než v současnosti. Klimatické modely dlouho zápolily se snahou tyto výkyvy mořských hladin replikovat – až doposud. Vůbec poprvé se vysoce kvalitnímu modelu antarktického ledu a klimatu podařilo tyto velké výkyvy simulovat. Je to projev vědeckého důmyslu, ale přináší drtivé poznání.

Nový model ukazuje, že jen tání v Antarktidě by do konce přítomného století mohlo globální hladiny moří zvýšit až o metr – což výrazně převyšuje dřívější odhady. Ještě horší je, že naznačuje, že západoantarktický ledovcový štít, zadržující eventuální vzestup mořských hladin o víc než pět metrů, nezachrání ani mimořádně úspěšné snižování emisí. Už pouhý metr by přitom mohl ohrozit celá města, od Miami po Mumbaí, a zapříčinit obrovské poruchy hospodářství.

Musíme jít s teplotou dolů – a rychle. V tomto ohledu je ohromným příslibem modifikace albeda – geoinženýrská technika, jejímž cílem je ochladit planetu zvýšením odrazivosti atmosféry Země.

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