Pro-Europe supporters in front of UK supreme court Leon Neal/Getty Images

L’età dell’iper-incertezza

BERLINO – L’anno 2017 segnerà il 40mo anniversario dell’uscita del libro di John Kenneth Galbraith intitolato L’età dell’incertezza. Quarant’anni è molto tempo, ma vale la pena fare un salto all’indietro e ricordare a noi stessi cosa voleva dire “incertezza” per Galbraith e i lettori dell’epoca.  

Nel 1977, quando Galbraith scriveva, il mondo si stava ancora riavendo dallo shock dell’aumento dei prezzi del petrolio imposto dall’Opec, e si chiedeva se ve ne fosse un altro in arrivo (come in effetti vi fu). Gli Stati Uniti stavano vivendo un rallentamento della crescita e un aumento dell’inflazione, o stagflazione, un problema inedito che sollevò dubbi sulla competenza dei politici e sull’adeguatezza dei loro modelli economici. Nel frattempo, gli sforzi per ricostruire il sistema monetario internazionale di Bretton Woods erano falliti, gettando un’ombra sul futuro del commercio internazionale e della crescita economica globale.    

Per tutte le ragioni di cui sopra, il periodo d’oro della stabilità e della prevedibilità rappresentato dal terzo quarto del ventesimo secolo sembrò interrompersi all’improvviso, per essere seguito da un periodo di forte incertezza.   

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