L'après-Talibans

"Un État en faillite", c'est là le terme le plus fréquemment utilisé pour décrire l'Afghanistan et pour expliquer les raisons qui menèrent les terroristes à exercer tant d'influence sur le territoire afghan. Mais la faillite d'un État ne se produit pas de son propre fait, tout comme il ne s'affaiblit pas sans raisons. La faillite se produit (quand faillite il y a) sous le coup de raisons précises et identifiables. Ce sont ces raisons qu'il faut traiter, si l'on veut faire renaître l'Afghanistan.

Vingt and de guerre d'occupation et de guerre civile, et de sécheresse, ont anéanti les institutions afghanes. Des millions d'Afghans s'entassent dans les camps de réfugiés ou ont été chassés de chez eux. Les mines terrestres polluent les campagnes. Des millions de personnes sont malades et pauvres ; nombreux sont ceux qui survivent dans la famine. Pour toutes ces raisons et bien d'autres encore, la renaissance de l'économie afghane nécessitera non seulement une reconstruction économique mais aussi un effort pour réinventer les institutions politiques et culturelles du pays. Un effort d'une telle intensité est condamné à l'échec, cependant, si les voisins de l'Afghanistan s'en mêlent au point de relancer à nouveau des soulèvements économiques.

L'Afghanistan ne peut faire l'objet de solutions expéditives. La reconstruction du pays ne peut se faire à moindre coût. Il faut oublier la possibilité que la coalition anti-terroriste soit capable de tirer rapidement le pays d'affaire (comme le crût l'occident quand l'Afghanistan fut abandonné à lui-même après le retrait des troupes soviétiques dix ans plus tôt). L'occident doit soutenir l'Afghanistan jusqu'à ce que sa reconstruction soit bien ancrée. Tout acte contraire revient à prendre le risque du retour du chaos et de la violence, dans une région cette fois-ci bien plus instable, comme les problèmes actuels du Pakistan le démontrent.

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