Después del incumplimiento de pago griego

CAMBRIDGE – El gobierno griego, la Comisión Europea y el Fondo Monetario Internacional niegan lo que los mercados perciben claramente: Grecia finalmente caerá en un incumplimiento de pago de sus deudas a sus acreedores privados y públicos. Los políticos prefieren posponer lo inevitable poniendo dinero público donde el dinero privado ya no va, porque esto les permite a los acreedores mantener la ficción de que el valor contable de los bonos griegos que tienen en su poder no tiene por qué bajar. Eso, a su vez, evita que se disparen los requerimientos de un mayor capital bancario.

Sin embargo, aunque los préstamos adicionales que Grecia pronto recibirá de la Unión Europea y el FMI tienen tasas de interés bajas, el nivel de la deuda griega aumentará rápidamente hasta alcanzar niveles insostenibles. Eso es porque las tasas de interés del mercado sobre los bonos griegos en manos privadas y los precios de las permutas de riesgo crediticio indican que un incumplimiento de pago masivo es inminente.

Y un incumplimiento de pago masivo, junto con un recorte sostenido importante del déficit presupuestario anual, en realidad, es lo que se necesita para restablecer la sustentabilidad fiscal griega. Más específicamente, aún si un incumplimiento de pago reduce la deuda del país al 60% del PBI, Grecia todavía tendría que reducir su déficit presupuestario anual del actual 10% del PBI a alrededor del 3% si quiere impedir que el ratio de deuda vuelva a subir. En ese caso, en el futuro Grecia debería estar en condiciones de financiar sus déficits gubernamentales anuales con fuentes domésticas solamente.

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