Il post-inadempimento della Grecia

CAMBRIDGE – Il governo greco, la Commissione europea e il Fondo Monetario Internazionale negano ciò che i mercati percepiscono in modo evidente, ovvero che la Grecia risulterà prima o poi inadempiente nei confronti dei suoi creditori pubblici e privati. I politici preferiscono procrastinare l’inevitabile investendo i soldi pubblici in aree non più coperte dai privati, in quanto questo procedimento permette ai creditori di continuare a far credere che il valore contabile delle obbligazioni greche in loro possesso non abbia bisogno di essere diminuito. Ciò permette, in cambio, di evitare ulteriori richieste di capitale bancario.

Ma sebbene i prestiti aggiuntivi che la Grecia riceverà a breve dall’Unione europea e dall’FMI abbiano dei tassi di interesse relativamente bassi, il livello del debito greco aumenterà comunque rapidamente fino a raggiungere livelli insostenibili. Ecco perché i tassi di interesse di mercato sulle obbligazioni greche dei privati ed i prezzi dei credit default swap indicano imminente una situazione di consistente inadempimento.

Ed un contesto simile, insieme ad una riduzione significativa del deficit di bilancio annuale, è in realtà necessario per ripristinare la sostenibilità fiscale della Grecia. Nello specifico, anche nel caso in cui l’inadempimento riesca a ridurre il debito del paese fino al 60% del PIL, la Grecia dovrebbe comunque ridurre il suo deficit annuale dall’attuale 10% fino al 3% rispetto al suo PIL per prevenire un eventuale nuovo aumento dell’indice di indebitamento. In tal caso la Grecia dovrebbe essere in grado di finanziare i suoi deficit annuali futuri esclusivamente attraverso risorse interne.

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